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Changes in climate are altering disturbance regimes in forests of western North America, leading to increases in the potential for disturbance events to overlap in time and space. Though interactions between abiotic and biotic disturbance (e.g., the effect of bark beetle outbreak on subsequent wildfire) have been widely studied, interactions between multiple biotic disturbances are poorly understood. Defoliating insects, such as the western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemanni), have been widely suggested to predispose trees to secondary colonization by bark beetles, such as the Douglas-fir beetle (DFB; Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). However, there is little quantitative research that supports this observation. Here, we asked: Does previous WSB damage increase the likelihood of subsequent DFB outbreak in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA? To quantify areas affected by WSB and then DFB, we analyzed Aerial Detection Survey data from 1999–2019. We found that a DFB presence followed WSB defoliation more often than expected under a null model (i.e., random distribution). With climate change expected to intensify some biotic disturbances, an understanding of the interactions between insect outbreaks is important for forest management planning, as well as for improving our understanding of forest change.more » « less
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Cohen, Jeremy M.; Sauer, Erin L.; Santiago, Olivia; Spencer, Samuel; Rohr, Jason R. (, Science)Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.more » « less
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